Forget relegation, Newcastle United are fighting for 8th

Rafa Benitez’s side have struck form at the perfect time.

After defeating Arsenal 2-1 at St. James Park on Sunday, Rafa Benitez has inspired his Newcastle side to four straight victories, a vital run that has all but guaranteed Premier League safety. Fears of relegation seem only a distant memory, but what can else can be taken from the remarkable turn around on Tyneside?

League Position

Newcastle United now sit in 10th place on 41 points, only two points behind Leicester who, prior to their loss at Burnley, looked in good position to fight for a Europa League berth.

While it’s true that the Foxes have taken their foot off the gas of late, the prospect of being in such close proximity to the former Premier League champions would’ve been laughed off only weeks ago, and is testament to the belief of the Newcastle players whose only loss in the last five has been away to Champions League semi-finalists Liverpool.

The Magpies have also distanced themselves well from the bottom half of the league. 11th place Bournemouth are three points below that of Benitez’s side, and second closest side Watford are four points behind. Crucially both these clubs form a comfortable buffer for Newcastle between the top 10 and those still fighting relegation.

Swansea, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, West Ham, and Brighton are all still in the mix, with all of them within the 33-35 points range. For every game they fail to win, they continue to look over their collective shoulders, and it has been a pleasant surprise that Newcastle have been able to hold on to winning positions as of late –  the 2-1 victories over Leicester and Arsenal the most obvious examples. Without those two victories, they would still be in and amongst the relegation threatened sides, but seeing them rise up the table has done wonders for confidence at St. James Park.

Goal Difference

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If there ever was a clear marker for how Rafa Benitez wants his team to play, it’s goal difference. Granted, the Spaniard has hardly had the luxury of picking between world-class talents during his time on Tyneside, but Rafa’s focus on defense first has been a perfect fit for Newcastle United.

A good manager adopts a tactical system to fit his players, and the struggles of the Toon’s forward players have been long lamented. Dwight Gayle and Ayoze Perez are the club’s joint-top goalscorers with a pitiful 5 goals, but Benitez has made it work.

Newcastle have conceded the 7th least amount of goals in the Premier League. Certainly, conceding 42 goals in 33 games is not fantastic, but relative to both the quality and the financial cost of the squad, it’s encouraging to say the least. January loanee goalkeeper Martin Dubravka should rightfully receive praise for his part in securing such an impressive record, but fans have been witness to this trend all season, even when results were not going Newcastle’s way.

Given there are only seven teams who have scored less than Newcastle this season, to have a goal difference of -7 is an excellent record. Moreover, in a season that could easily have spiraled out of control, a metric such as goal difference could’ve easily been the difference between relegation and survival.

There’s no doubt Rafa had this in mind when traveling away to sides such as Manchester City or Liverpool, where he showed obvious intent to limit the opposition’s goal tally even if it meant relinquishing a large majority of possession. This long-sighted approach has seen Newcastle have a better goal difference than all of the bottom 10 as well as Everton in 9th, a statistic that is made even more impressive when considering the closest side is eight behind on -15.

Best of the rest?

This all brings us to the conclusion that, notwithstanding the disastrous midseason slump, Newcastle United are in real contention for the ‘best of the rest’ in the Premier League – a position that can be quantified by who finishes top of all the sides not in qualifying position for a European place. For this year 8th place would meet those requirements, and there would be no better way to respond to the melodrama of an up-and-down season by finishing strong in the top half of the league.

Arsenal didn’t field their best side at St. James park on Sunday, but the clinical nature in which Newcastle dispatched Arsene Wenger’s side should fill any Toon fan with confidence going forward. The next three games for Newcastle are very winnable, and with a game in hand over Everton in 9th there is still all to play for provided Rafa can keep his players motivated.

Speaking of the Toffees, the Toon travel to Goodison Park next for a primetime, Monday evening kickoff. Everton’s struggles have come largely away from home this season, but they haven’t won in their last two home matches and there is a stark contrast in atmosphere between the two sides.

West Brom and Watford follow this fixture and provide yet another great opportunity for Newcastle to taste victory. West Brom bizarrely found success away at Old Trafford on the weekend, but it would be hard to predict anything other than a Newcastle win at St. James Park. The Magpies will have to travel south to face Watford, but they are a meandering side that have lost four games of their last five and have little to play for.

To reach 8th would mean leapfrogging Leicester City, but a gap of only two points and two losses on the bounce for Claude Puel’s men sees them in a poor position to finish out the season. Similarly to Newcastle, Leicester have relatively easy fixtures up next with Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham in their sights. However, all those sides are still fighting to stay up, and Arsenal and Spurs to finish the season is a tough ask.

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Newcastle do have Spurs and Chelsea for their final two games, but this only makes the three more favourable upcoming fixtures even more pivotal, and if form is anything to go by 8th place is the Toon’s to lose. Whilst finishing 10th or lower would still be a highly successful campaign for Newcastle United, there is a real sense that Rafa is building something special on Tyneside, and what better way to make this statement than finishing the season strong in 8th.