The relegation battle this season has been tight, but Newcastle United only need 36 points to survive.
The 2017/18 Premier League season will be remembered for two things – Manchester City’s dominance and the competition for survival. This season’s relegation battle has been the most competitive in recent memory, but the end is in sight.
The magic number for avoiding relegation is usually 40 points, however, this season has proved to be different and, at times, unpredictable. Currently, the point totals in the bottom three with nine matches remaining are 20, 27 and 27.
Newcastle United sit 16th in the table with 29 points, but the Magpies may only need 36 to achieve survival. With 27 points available from the final nine matches, the Magpies only need seven to stay up? Yes, and here is why.
Looking at the Competition
West Brom
Alan Pardew’s men seem destined to play in the Championship next season. With 20 points thus far in the season, West Brom need eight points to escape the drop zone, but with Leicester City, Burnley, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham still on the schedule, it is unlikely that they will accumulate more than 28 points.
Stoke City
Stoke City have one of the most difficult schedules of all the bottom-half clubs to close out the season. Xherdan Shaqiri has been in great form as of late, but he alone cannot save his club against Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Burnley , nd Liverpool. With this brutal schedule, it will be difficult for Stoke City to earn more than 35 points.
Southampton
Of the teams mentioned in this list, Southampton have a decent chance of avoiding relegation. However, the Saints do have their fair share of unfavorable matches against Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester City. With that being said, Southampton can take sufficient points in their other matches to earn 38 points at most.
Huddersfield Town
Like Stoke City, Huddersfield Town will face an insurmountable challenge to finish their season on a high note. Looking at their upcoming fixtures, Huddersfield Town could lose their last five matches. Concluding the 2017/18 campaign against Watford, Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal is a cause for concern. Therefore, the Premier League newcomers will probably finish the season with 34 points.
Crystal Palace
Last, but not least, are the Eagles from London. After a dreadful start to the season, Crystal Palace have made significant progress. Crystal Palace have a balanced schedule to end this campaign with some lenient matches in the mix. The difficult matches consist of facing Chelsea, Liverpool, Watford and Leicester City. Roy Hodgson might retain his position as manager next year as I expect his Eagles to finish the season with 36 points.
The Importance of March
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April and May will be the most nerve-wracking months for Newcastle United, but March will be the most crucial. With their trip to Wembley to face Tottenham being postponed, the Magpies have a great opportunity to bag six points against Southampton and Huddersfield Town.
Facing two relegation rivals at St. James’ Park this late in the season is the best thing that could have happened to Newcastle. The Magpies are capable of winning both matches at home and six points would give Newcastle United 35 points, only one shy of the 36 they need to survive.
Based on our opponents’ schedules, 36 points should be sufficient for Newcastle’s survival, but the Magpies have the quality to earn more, roughly between 38 and 40.