Newcastle United’s probability for relegation is down to less than 5%
Newcastle United have won back-to-back matches for only the second time this season. After blowing a two-goal advantage, Joe Willock scored the late winner for the Magpies and gave the club a huge three points.
That result moved them up to 15th on the table for the moment. After finishing level with Arsenal, Fulham are now eight points behind Newcastle United with one more match played. How confident should the Toon Army be that the club will secure Premier League safety?
According to the latest prediction model from FiveThirtyEight.com, Newcastle are a lock to avoid relegation. Their probability of going down is now listed at 4%, three percentage points better than Burnley. They are most likely to finish in the 17th position with 40 points.
Relegation is now a 90% likelihood for Scott Parker’s Fulham side. West Bromwich Albion have a 98% chance of dropping down and Sheffield United officially punched their ticket over the weekend.
Fulham’s chances for relegation are now at 90% as Newcastle United are a lock to survive.
As recently as March 21st, the prediction model had Newcastle and Fulham with identical 47% chances of being relegated.
While the weekend’s result was favorable for Newcastle’s outlook, it put a major damper on West Ham United’s. After their loss vs. NUFC over the weekend, the Hammers now have only a 20% chance of making the Champions League.
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For weeks, it appeared that Fulham could move past the Magpies, but that moment never came. Instead of the season finale determining who will be sent to the Championship, it now looks like it will be an inconsequential final match of the year for Newcastle United and a relegated Fulham side.