The latest data predicts if Newcastle will survive the relegation battle

Things are bad right now for Newcastle United. Steve Bruce can’t seem to get dismissed despite the club’s disastrous run of form, Isaac Hayden is done for the season, and relegation is a real possibility for the Magpies.

Newcastle supporters are desperate for good news, and did a recent supercomputer simulation provide a glimmer of hope for the Toon Army?

FiveThirtyEight relies on data and a formula to mathematically predict the Premier League table at the end of the season.  Their latest data model shows that it will be an extremely close battle for the final safe position on the table.

According to their prediction, last updated on 3/21, the probability for relegation for Newcastle United and Fulham is identical: 47%. But, the prediction shows Newcastle United will remain in the top flight and Fulham will finish in a relegation position.

FiveThirtyEight’s latest simulation says Newcastle United will survive a closely-contested relegation battle.

The final predicted point total for Newcastle is 36. That would indicate that the Magpies picked up eight points from their final nine matches of the season. With only eight matches left, Fulham are predicted to finish with 35 points. NUFC would finish with a goal differential of -27 compared to -18 for Scott Parker’s side.

FiveThirtyEight’s initial simulation for this season came on 9/9/20 as the Premier League season was about to get started. Coincidentally, that table also predicted that Newcastle would finish in 17th, just above Fulham. That predicted margin was even slimmer as both clubs would have 39 points on the season, but a -21 goal differential for the Magpies would narrowly edge a -22 goal differential for Fulham.

In the latest simulated Premier League table, Brighton would jump ahead of Burnley, who finish in the position right above Newcastle. West Brom and Sheffield United carry relegation probabilities of greater than 99%.