Historical stats prove Newcastle fans should be worried about relegation

Fabian Schar of Newcastle United F.C. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Fabian Schar of Newcastle United F.C. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images) /

After Newcastle United were defeated by Leeds United today, they have fallen down to 16th on the table. With this 11-match winless streak, they find themselves dangerously close to the relegation positions.

The Magpies have now played 20 matches, which gives us a good baseline to compare the 2020-21 campaign with the two most recent seasons that ended in relegation for the club.

Newcastle United were relegated after the 2008-09 and 2015-16 seasons, finishing 18th in both seasons.

On New Year’s Day in 2009, the Magpies didn’t seem to be in dire straits. They were 14th on the table after 20 matches and had 22 points with a -6 goal differential. But, they went on to lose ten of their remaining matches with only two wins in the stretch.

This season most closely resembles the 2015-16 campaign at this point. Newcastle had four wins, five draws, and 11 losses in 15-16 while this year’s record is five wins, four draws, and 11 losses. Both seasons saw 19 goals scored and Newcastle’s current 34 goals allowed are one fewer than that season. The current EPL campaign has Newcastle two points better off than 15-16. Unlike the 08-09 season, NUFC rallied late in 2016, going unbeaten in the final six matches. But, it wasn’t enough to save them that year.

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Both this season and 15-16 featured the 20th-place club having single-digit points. While the 08-19 NUFC side had the most points after 20 matches, they were dealing with the most points amongst the clubs holding relegation points (56 combined points in 08-09, 40 combined points in 15-16, and 28 combined points in 20-21). That could serve as the saving grace for Steve Bruce’s side this season.

Hopefully, Newcastle United will find a different fate than the 2008-09 and 2015-16 seasons. But, the numbers certainly don’t paint a promising picture for the Magpies.