Prediction model has bad news for Newcastle in their quest for 40 points

Callum Wilson of Newcastle United F.C. (Photo by Scott Heppell - Pool/Getty Images)
Callum Wilson of Newcastle United F.C. (Photo by Scott Heppell - Pool/Getty Images) /

Newcastle United are dealing with a major internal crisis at the moment. Having failed to win a single game in their last nine attempts, and only scoring one goal in their last seven games, Newcastle United are currently being labeled as the worst team in the Premier League.

The Magpies exceeded expectations in the early weeks of the season, but their luck has started to run out, and Steve Bruce knows it. Relegation was a nominal concern for Newcastle United a month ago, but they dragged themselves back into that hole with their recent form.

As a result, the latest prediction calculations from FiveThirtyEight have Newcastle United surviving the season by the skin of their teeth. According to the model, the Magpies will finish the season 17th in the table with 37 points, just three above 18th-placed Fulham. Based on what we are seeing from the team at this stage of the season that prediction seems accurate.

Newcastle United do not have a lucky break in sight either, in terms of their schedule, as their next eight games consist of Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Everton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Manchester United (A), and Wolverhampton (H).

Newcastle United are desperate for a new manager to take charge.

There is no way that Steve Bruce will be in charge after the Everton game, especially if Aston Villa and Leeds United – two high-scoring teams – thrash the Toon after just being dominated 3-0 by Arsenal and embarrassed 1-0 by Sheffield United.

Unless a new manager walks through the doors of St. James’ Park, Newcastle United could very well book their place in the Championship next season. The team needs to open up and attack more if they want to remain a step ahead of the bottom three.

With Allan Saint-Maximin on the path to recovery, and Callum Wilson already proving how lethal he can be in front of goal, Bruce needs to go all out against most teams.

It would help if Newcastle United are able to secure the services of a box-to-box midfielder before this window closes. The latest reports have Leicester City midfielder Hamza Choudhury linked with a move to Newcastle United.

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The front office should also consider pursuing a loan move for Aston Villa outcast Conor Hourihane.