A win on Sunday could see Newcastle United go from 14th to knocking on the door of the top six.
Newcastle United are coming off a 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton, but Steve Bruce is now tasked with preparing his men for yet another difficult opponent in Everton. The Magpies will host the Toffees at St. James’ Park, but they have suffered some heavy defeats to Brighton and Manchester United on their own ground.
Everton will perceive this clash as a golden opportunity to bounce back against one of the most inconsistent sides in the division. Last weekend’s defeat away to Southampton (0-2) will not sit well with Carlo Ancelotti, and he will expect a top performance against the Toon.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Newcastle United’s odds of claiming three points against the league leaders stand at 29%. However, this team is known for their ability to frustrate superior opponents, but what can they do to surprise Everton?
Defensively, the focal point will be Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The England international has already scored seven goals this season, which is half of Everton’s total tally, so containing him would take away a key attacking component for Everton.
That job should only be left to the back line, though. The shadow chasing that was deployed against Wolves with nine players behind the ball will not work against Everton. With James Rodriguez and Richarlison calling the shots in midfield, Everton have the quality to find openings and get the ball to Calvert-Lewin in the box.
Instead, Newcastle United need to emulate what Southampton did against Everton last weekend for two reasons. Firstly, opening up and fighting to keep possession of the ball would take Everton by surprise as they are preparing for a team that will park the bus and strike on the counter.
Secondly, this is one of those games where the Magpies want to have the ball to create as many chances as possible against a vulnerable keeper.
Former Sunderland man Jordan Pickford has been criticized for his performances across all competitions so far this season. The difference between Everton and Newcastle United in the table may be 13 positions, but in terms of goals conceded the difference is only one goal.
Pickford has conceded two goals in each of his last three games, and his decision-making in one-on-one situations in the box seems to have gotten worse. That being said, Bruce must tailor his strategy to focus on getting the ball higher up the pitch to Ryan Fraser, Callum Wilson, and Allan Saint-Maximin.
So long as the Magpies can enjoy at least 45% possession and spread the ball around in the final third, they have enough firepower keep Pickford’s trend of conceding at least twice alive.