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Newcastle United have a 34% chance of being relegated

By Durim Halimi

LEICESTER, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: Miguel Almiron of Newcastle United and teammates look on after the red card of Isaac Hayden of Newcastle United during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Newcastle United at The King Power Stadium on September 29, 2019 in Leicester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images)
LEICESTER, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: Miguel Almiron of Newcastle United and teammates look on after the red card of Isaac Hayden of Newcastle United during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Newcastle United at The King Power Stadium on September 29, 2019 in Leicester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images) /
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Newcastle United are not in crisis mode just yet, but they are battling inconsistency, and this inconsistency is turning them into relegation favorites.

The 2019-20 Premier League campaign is a new season, but the narrative of the past two seasons has followed Newcastle United. Once again, the Magpies are off to a slow start in the Premier League. Yes, they have more points than they did at this stage last season, but the top flight is much more competitive this term as a result of the confidence being displayed by promoted sides, especially Sheffield United (9th) and Aston Villa (12th).

According to the updated ranking index from FiveThirtyEight, there is a 34% chance that Newcastle United will be relegated to the Championship. The Magpies are predicted to end the season in 18th place with 40 points. Watford and Norwich City are the other two teams also being tapped to go down with odds of 45% and 51%, respectively.

As much as I would love to disagree with the statistical calculations made by FiveThirtyEight, I just can’t. I firmly believe that Newcastle United have the talent to earn a high mid-table finish, but the lack of goals – five in nine matches – is alarming. In order for the Toon to turn things around they need to start making the most of their chances in front goal.

The Magpies tally of five goals from nine matches is tied for the lowest number of goals scored in the league. Steve Bruce’s side is also the second-worst team when it comes to creating chances. So far this season, Newcastle United have only created 81 chances, which translates to mere nine shot attempts per game. Moreover, the Toon have also missed seven golden opportunities to score.

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Fortunately, it is still early in the season, but if wasted chances continue to pile up, so does the probability of being relegated. Newcastle United have plenty of time to turn things around and they have already escaped the bottom three a few times this season. Per my bold prediction from earlier this week, I think the Toon will string together some positive results and score more goals over the next nine matches, but if they continue to struggle then I would worry… a lot.