Newcastle United are on track for survival, but there are some matches this weekend that could help the Magpies secure their Top Flight status sooner rather than later.
Relegation battles are never fun and this is the second straight season that Newcastle United have been dragged in to the relegation mix. The Magpies have turned things around since January and are now 13th in the standings with 35 points from 31 matches. Rafa Benitez’s side are on track for survival, but relegation is still mathematically possible.
Calculations from the FiveThirtyEight computer show that there is only a one percent chance for Newcastle to be relegated, but things can change quickly over the course of seven games. That being said, most teams control their own destiny when aiming to avoid relegation, but the misfortune of other clubs always serves as a major boost. Looking at this weekend, here are some results that would benefit Newcastle.
Chelsea Win vs. Cardiff City
Cardiff City are currently 18th in the table with 28 points. Neil Warnock’s side are only two points shy of safety behind Burnley and Southampton. An upset for Cardiff City this weekend would cause some panic among the bottom five, especially if Southampton and Burnley lose. A loss for Cardiff City would benefit Newcastle, regardless of their result against Arsenal, as they would still maintain their seven point lead with six matches left after this weekend.
Wolves Win vs. Burnley
Burnley are in danger of being relegated and their difficult schedule over the next few weeks does not help their case. Burnley will host Wolves this weekend, but Wolves are the clear favorites and they could score multiple goals in this affair against a Burnley side that has conceded 59 goals. A loss for Burnley would enable Newcastle to stay at least five points clear of Sean Dyche’s side.
Southampton & Brighton Draw
Southampton and Brighton are both below Newcastle in the standings. The Toon have five more points than Southampton and are only two points above Brighton. A win for Brighton could see Newcastle drop to 15th if Crystal Palace also win their match, but Newcastle would still be five points clear of the Saints.
The other scenario is that Southampton and Brighton draw. This would give both teams a point and help them close the gap with Newcastle if the Magpies lose in London. However, this scenario would keep Southampton and Brighton below Newcastle in the standings for at least one more week.