Newcastle’s survival odds have improved by 14%

New calculations show that Newcastle United’s back-to-back wins have improved their odds of survival by a significant margin.

Newcastle United were in the relegation zone last month and the calculations made by FiveThirtyEight hit the Magpies with a 34% chance of being relegated to the Championship. Fast forward to today, though, and the narrative has changed. Steve Bruce’s squad managed to claim impressive back-to-back wins over West Ham (A) and Bournemouth (H) over the last two weeks, and these consecutive victories have decreased the Magpies’ odds of going down to the second tier of English football.

As it stands, new calculations from FiveThirtyEight show that Newcastle United now have a 20% chance of being relegated, which is an improvement of 14%. In addition to this relegation calculation, the computer is also predicting Newcastle United to finish 15th in the table with 42 points, which would be enough to finish ahead of West Ham, Aston Villa, Watford (R), Southampton (R) and Norwich City (R).

Now I know that computer calculations don’t mean much since the outcome of matches is determined on the pitch itself. I do, however, think the numbers compiled by FiveThirtyEight are spot on. The numbers reflect the Magpies’ improved form, but also show that the threat of relegation has not faded. Newcastle United are on the right track, but building on this momentum and developing consistency is the key going forward.

Bruce knows his team has a great chance to claim multiple victories over the next couple of weeks when the Toon go up against teams like Aston Villa, Sheffield United, Southampton, Burnley and Crystal Palace. If Newcastle United keep this good run of form going and pick up some crucial points before 2020 rolls around, then I confidently believe Bruce can alter his objective from fighting for survival to fighting for a place among the top ten.

As I mentioned above, Newcastle United are on the right track at the moment. One thing that needs to change in order to convince fans that they can be optimistic about this squad is where the goals are coming from. The Toon cannot have the majority of their goals come from the back-line. Joelinton, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron need to start carrying this team. One goal between the front-three is unacceptable.